Nationally determined contributions
Background
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of global efforts to combat climate change. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries committed to regularly submit NDCs, which outline each nation’s goals and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Western Balkans Six (WB6) — Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia — are part of this international framework, contributing their share of commitments in transitioning towards a low-carbon economy.
The Paris Agreement aims to keep global temperature increases well below 2°C, with aspirations to limit the rise to 1.5°C. The Western Balkans face significant challenges and opportunities as they work to decarbonize while still heavily reliant on fossil fuels for energy production.
The Paris Agreement aims to keep global temperature increases well below 2°C, with aspirations to limit the rise to 1.5°C. The Western Balkans face significant challenges and opportunities as they work to decarbonize while still heavily reliant on fossil fuels for energy production.
NDCs Across the Western Balkans
Each WB6 country has submitted its own NDCs, with varying levels of ambition:
- Albania aims for a 20.9% reduction in emissions by 2030, compared to a business-as-usual scenario. This target translates to a reduction of 6,674 kilotons of CO2 equivalent by 2030.
Download the NDC - Bosnia and Herzegovina commits to a 33.2% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. With international support, the target increases to 36.8%.
Download the NDC - Kosovo, while not a signatory to the Paris Agreement due to its political status, has voluntarily committed to reducing emissions by 32% by 2031 compared to 1990.
See UNDP’s climate process - Montenegro targets a 35% reduction in emissions by 2030 relative to 1990 levels.
Download the NDC - North Macedonia has one of the most ambitious targets, committing to an 82% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 1990.
Download the NDC - Serbia has set a target of a 33.3% reduction in emissions by 2030, revising an earlier target of 9% to a more aggressive goal.
Download the NDC
An Outlook on the Challenges and Opportunities in Decarbonization
The energy mix in the Western Balkans is still dominated by fossil fuels, particularly coal, oil, and natural gas. In 2020, about 71.7% of the region’s energy came from fossil fuel use, contributing significantly to GHG emissions. In fact, the region emits approximately 90 million tons of CO2 annually, with 45 million tons attributed to lignite (coal) burning alone. The carbon intensity of electricity generation in the Western Balkans is three times higher than that of the European Union (EU-27), highlighting the urgent need for decarbonization.
However, the Western Balkans have started making strides toward reducing emissions - see case studies for more information. While these efforts are promising, the region’s transition to renewable energy needs to accelerate if it is to meet NDC targets and align with the EU’s Green Deal objectives. Delays in phasing out coal and increasing the share of renewables, such as solar and wind energy, remain a challenge.
However, the Western Balkans have started making strides toward reducing emissions - see case studies for more information. While these efforts are promising, the region’s transition to renewable energy needs to accelerate if it is to meet NDC targets and align with the EU’s Green Deal objectives. Delays in phasing out coal and increasing the share of renewables, such as solar and wind energy, remain a challenge.
Financial and Technical Support
For many Western Balkan countries, achieving ambitious NDC targets will require significant financial and technical support from international donors and stakeholders. Initiatives like the support from the European Commission for various carbon projects under the Economic and investment Plan exemplify how international partnerships can play a crucial role in facilitating a just green transition.
In addition to financial support, capacity-building efforts are essential for enhancing technical expertise and the ability to track emissions, as well as ensuring transparency in climate action. The region’s progress will be regularly assessed through the Paris Agreement’s enhanced transparency framework and global stocktakes, ensuring accountability and driving further action.
In addition to financial support, capacity-building efforts are essential for enhancing technical expertise and the ability to track emissions, as well as ensuring transparency in climate action. The region’s progress will be regularly assessed through the Paris Agreement’s enhanced transparency framework and global stocktakes, ensuring accountability and driving further action.
The Road Ahead Toward Compliance
For the Western Balkans to comply with the Paris Agreement and meet their NDC commitments, significant transformations are needed:
- Shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric power will be essential. This includes the modernization of outdated power plants, many of which are reliant on lignite coal.
- Aligning national climate policies with the EU’s environmental regulations will ensure the region is well-positioned for integration into the European Green Deal. This includes setting binding timelines for coal phase-outs and adopting more robust carbon pricing mechanisms.
- Attracting both public and private investment into renewable energy projects, energy efficiency measures, and green technology will drive the region’s decarbonization efforts. Public-private partnerships will play a key role in scaling up these initiatives.
In summary
The Western Balkans’ path to a carbon-free future is underway but faces significant challenges. Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) provide a critical roadmap for the region, pushing each country to set ambitious targets while seeking international support for a just and sustainable energy transition. Meeting these targets will require an all-hands-on-deck approach, with robust policy frameworks, financial backing, and a shift in public and private sector attitudes toward renewable energy and decarbonization.
The future of the Western Balkans depends on how quickly and effectively these countries can move from plans to action, decarbonizing their economies while fostering green growth. If successful, the region can become a model for energy transition in developing nations, showing how bold climate commitments can go hand-in-hand with sustainable development.
The future of the Western Balkans depends on how quickly and effectively these countries can move from plans to action, decarbonizing their economies while fostering green growth. If successful, the region can become a model for energy transition in developing nations, showing how bold climate commitments can go hand-in-hand with sustainable development.